Introduction and Overview |
1.
Advanced Europe: Reversing the Slide |
|
Divergent Recoveries, but a
Synchronized Slowdown? |
|
New Headwinds from an Escalating Euro
Area Sovereign Crisis |
|
Policies to Stop the Slide |
2.
Emerging Europe: Reducing Vulnerabilities to Prevent
Financial
Turmoil |
|
Developments in the First Half of 2011 |
|
Outlook for the Remainder of 2011 and
2012 |
|
Risks to the Outlook |
|
Key Policy Issues |
|
Toward Sustainable Convergence with
Advanced Europe |
3.
Long-Term Growth Differentials within Europe |
|
Growth Differentials in Europe |
|
Low Growth Traps and How to Get Out of
Them |
|
Extending the European Growth Frontier |
4.
East-West Economic and Financial Linkages in Europe |
|
Stylized Facts |
|
Spillovers and Quantifications |
|
Policy Implications |
Annex |
Appendix. Europe: IMF-Supported Arrangements |
References |
|
Boxes |
1.1. |
Labor Reforms in the
Euro Area: Still Too Little? |
1.2. |
Monetary Policy and Bank
Performance in Advanced Europe |
1.3. |
Macro-prudential Reforms
in the EU: Objectives and Progress |
2.1. |
The Appeal of Fiscal
Expenditure Rules in Countries of CESEE |
2.2. |
Institutions That
Facilitate Fiscal Consolidation |
2.3. |
Nonperforming Loans (NPLs)
and Credit Growth in Emerging Europe |
3.1. |
Stylized Facts from the
Economic Growth Literature |
3.2. |
Labor Market Reform: The
Experience of the Netherlands in the 1980s1990s |
3.3. |
Sweden: Structural
Reforms in the 1990s |
3.4. |
Why Has Italy Grown So
Poorly in the Last 20 Years? |
3.5. |
United Kingdom:
Structural Reforms during the 1980s |
3.6. |
EU State Aid Policy and
Industrial Policy |
3.7. |
Promoting Research and
Innovation: Swedens Research and Innovation Bill (2008) |
|
|
Tables |
1. |
European Countries: Real
GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 200912 |
1.1. |
Advanced European
Countries: Main Macroeconomic Indicators,
200912 |
2.1. |
Emerging Europe: Growth
of Real GDP, Domestic Demand, Exports, and Private
Consumption, 200912 |
2.2. |
Emerging Europe: CPI
Inflation, Current Account Balance, and External Debt,
200912 |
2.3. |
Emerging Europe:
Evolution of Public Debt and General Government Balance,
200912 |
2.4. |
Emerging Europe:
Selected Financial Soundness Indicators, 200711 |
3.1. |
United States and EU15:
Comparison of GDP Per Capita and Its Decomposition
(2010) |
4.1. |
Europe: Degree of Trade
Interconnectedness |
4.2. |
CESEE and Western
Europe: Bilateral Trade, 2010 |
4.3. |
CESEE and Western
Europe: Bilateral Trade, 2010 |
4.4. |
Selected Countries:
Measures of Vertical Specialization across Borders, 2004 |
|
|
Figures |
1.1. |
Selected Advanced
European Countries: Sectoral Debt Levels, 2010 |
1.2. |
Selected Advanced
European Countries: Export Market Share, 2000 and 2010 |
1.3. |
Selected Advanced
European Countries: Real GDP, 2007:Q12011:Q2 |
1.4. |
Euro Area: Contributions
to GDP Growth, 2006:Q12011:Q2 |
1.5. |
Euro Area Countries and
United Kingdom: External Imbalances,
200911 |
1.6. |
Selected European
Countries: Drivers of Public Debt Increase,
200711 |
1.7. |
Euro Area and Selected
Countries: Monetary Policy Stance, 200911 |
1.8. |
Euro Area and United
Kingdom: Headline and Core Inflation, January 2006July
2011 |
1.9. |
Selected European
Countries: Tangible Common Equity and Wholesale Funding
Ratio, 200710 |
1.10. |
Selected European
Countries: Financial Sector Assets Relative to Size of
Economy, 2010 |
1.11. |
Selected European
Countries and the United States: Unemployment Rate,
January 2006July 2011 |
1.12. |
Euro Area: Mergers and
Acquisitions by Nationality of Buyer, 200511 |
1.13. |
Euro Area: Banking
Sector Risk Index, 200711 |
1.14. |
Selected European
Countries: Key Short-Term Indicators, 200611 |
1.15. |
Selected European
Countries: Decomposition of 10-Year Government Bond
Spreads vis-à-vis OIS Rate, 2009:Q32011:Q2 |
1.16. |
Selected Advanced
Countries: Claims on Domestic Banks and Public Sector,
2009:Q4 and 2011:Q1 |
1.17. |
Selected Advanced
European Countries: Changes in General Government Fiscal
Deficits, 201013 |
2.1. |
Emerging Europe:
Contributions to GDP Growth |
2.2. |
Global Markets:
Commodity Prices, January 2006August 2011 |
2.3. |
Emerging Europe: Real
Private Sector Credit Growth, 200708 versus Latest |
2.4. |
Emerging Europe: Real
GDP |
2.5. |
Emerging Europe:
Inflation, January 2008July 2011 |
2.6. |
Emerging Europe:
Industrial Production, January 2008July 2011 |
2.7. |
Emerging Europe:
Consumer Confidence, January 2007August 2011 |
2.8. |
Emerging Europe:
Contributions to GDP Growth, 201112 |
2.9. |
CESEE and EA3 Countries:
Funding Costs, January 1, 2007September 6, 2011 |
2.10. |
Selected European
Countries: 5-Year CDS Spreads, January 1, 2008September
6, 2011 |
2.11. |
Emerging Europe: Change
in Overall Fiscal Balances and General Government Gross
Debt, 201012 |
2.12. |
Emerging Europe: Fiscal
Vulnerability Indicators in Perspective |
2.13. |
Selected Countries: Bank
Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans |
2.14. |
Emerging Europe: NPL
Levels and Past Credit Growth |
2.15. |
Emerging Europe: Bank
Nonperforming Loans to Total Loans, 200611 |
2.16. |
Emerging Europe: Bank
Provisions to Nonperforming Loans, 201011 |
2.17. |
Selected Banks in
Emerging Europe: European Bank Stress Tests |
3.1. |
European Countries:
Change in Real GDP Per Capita, 200010 |
3.2. |
Convergence in the Three
Global Regions, 200010 |
3.3. |
European Countries:
Contribution to GDP Growth of Investment and Capital
Flows, 200010 |
3.4. |
European Countries:
Change in TFP Relative to Per Capita GDP,
200009 |
3.5. |
Europe: Contribution to
Growth of Output Per Hour Worked |
3.6. |
Europe: Contribution to
Growth of Employment, 200008 |
3.7. |
Europe: Growth
Experience Beyond What Is Explained by Convergence |
3.8. |
Selected European
Economies: Domestic Demand Booms and Their Impact on
Long-Term Growth, 200010 |
3.9. |
Europe: Public Debt and
Adjusted Growth |
3.10. |
Europe: Corporate Tax
Rates and Growth, 200010 |
3.11. |
Europe: Labor Market
Flexibility, Employment, and Labor Participation, 2010 |
3.12. |
Europe: Education Levels
and Growth, 200010 |
3.13. |
Emerging Europe:
Economic Transition and Growth, 200010 |
3.14. |
Advanced Europe: Product
Markets Efficiency and Growth, 200010 |
3.15. |
Advanced Europe:
Institutional Quality, Legal Structure, and Growth,
200010 |
3.16. |
Advanced Europe:
Innovation, Technological Readiness, and Growth, 200010 |
3.17. |
Selected EU Countries:
Trade Openness, 19952010 |
3.18. |
Europe: Trade Openness
and Growth, 200010 |
3.19. |
Europe: The Size of
Tradable and Nontradable Sectors Relative to
Productivity and Growth, 200010 |
3.20. |
Advanced Europe: Market
and Institutional Efficiency Relative to Export Growth,
200010 |
3.21. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
GDP per Capita Relative to Germany, 19702010 |
3.22. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
Government Primary Spending, 19702010 |
3.23. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
Real Compensation Rate of the Private Sector, 19702010 |
3.24. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
Employment Rate, 19702010 |
3.25. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
Labor Productivity per Worker, 19702010 |
3.26. |
Netherlands and Sweden:
Exports of Goods and Services, 19702010 |
3.27. |
Hungary and Its Peers:
Government Spending, 2009 |
3.28. |
United States and
Selected EU Countries: Per Capita GDP, 2000 and 2010 |
3.29. |
United States and
Selected EU Countries: Contribution to TFP Growth of
Major Sectors, 19952007 |
3.30. |
EU13 and United States:
Human Capital Stock Comparisons, 2005 Level |
3.31. |
United States and
Selected EU Economies: Services Sector Contribution to
TFP Growth (19952007) and Regulatory Conditions |
3.32. |
United States, Japan,
and Selected European Countries: Innovation Indicators,
200910 Weighted Average |
4.1. |
Selected Global Regions:
Total Trade Flows, 2010 |
4.2. |
Europe and Rest of the
World: Trade Flows of Goods, 2010 |
4.3. |
CESEE: GDP Relative to
Western Europe, 19952015 |
4.4. |
CESEE and Western
Europe: Import and Export Shares by Region, 19952010 |
4.5. |
Selected Global Regions:
Intraregional Trade of Intermediate Goods, 19962009 |
4.6. |
CESEE and Western
Europe: Trade of Intermediate Goods in Europe, 19962009 |
4.7. |
Selected European
Regions: Importsand Exports between CESEE and Western
Europe by Components, 2009 |
4.8. |
CESEE: Inward Foreign
Direct Investment Stock by Origins of Funds and
Sectors,2008 |
4.9. |
Europe: Accumulated
German Foreign Direct Investment, 200710 |
4.10. |
CESEE: Funding from BIS-Reporting
Banks, 2010 |
4.11. |
CESEE: Consolidated
Claims of BIS-Reporting Banks by Country of Bank
Ownership, 2010 |
4.12. |
Western Europe:
Consolidated Claims of BIS-Reporting Banks on CESEE by
Country of Bank Ownership, 2010 |
4.13. |
CESEE: Funding from
Western Banks and Imports from Western Europe, 200308 |
4.14. |
Asia and Europe: Impact
of Output Spillovers through the Trade Channel |
4.15. |
Europe: Growth
Spillovers between CESEE and Western Europe |
4.16. |
Europe: Credit
Spillovers from Western Europe to CESEE |