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The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the
prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened
after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global
slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and
better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume
in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively
solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent
improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies
to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental
changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3
examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate
the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support
otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in
commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which
have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices
unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however,
these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to
lower potential output growth in the future.
Contents
Chapter 1: Global
Prospects and Policies
Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
The Labor Share in
Europe and the United States during and after the Great
Recession |
Chart
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.2 |
The Global Recovery:
Where Do We Stand? |
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data
Data
Data
Data |
1.3 |
Where Is China’s
External Surplus Headed? |
Tables |
1.1 |
Overview of the World
Economic Outlook Projections |
1.SF.1. |
Share of Commodity Price
Variance Associated with Static Common Factors |
1.SF.2. |
Global Oil Demand and
Production by Region |
1.SF.3. |
Mean and Standard
Deviations of Oil Production |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Global Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Recent Financial Market
Developments |
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Current and
Forward-Looking Growth Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.4 |
Emerging Market
Conditions |
Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Credit Market Conditions |
Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
Euro Area Spillovers |
Chart |
Data |
1.7 |
Monetary and Fiscal
Policies |
Chart |
Data |
1.8 |
Balance Sheets and
Saving Rates |
Chart |
Data |
1.9 |
Global Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
1.10 |
Emerging Market
Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.11 |
Global Imbalances |
Chart |
Data |
1.12 |
Risks to the Global
Outlook |
Chart |
Data |
1.13 |
Recession and Deflation
Risks |
Chart |
Data |
1.14 |
WEO Downside Scenario
for Increased Bank and Sovereign Stress in the Euro Area |
Chart |
Data |
1.15 |
WEO Downside Scenario
for Disruption to the Global Oil Supply |
Chart |
Data |
1.16 |
WEO Downside Scenario
for Reevaluation of Potential Output Growth in Emerging
Market Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.17 |
WEO Upside Scenario |
Chart |
|
1.18 |
Overheating Indicators
for the G20 Countries |
Chart |
Data |
1.19 |
Policy Requirements in
Emerging Market Economies |
Chart |
Data
|
1.SF.1. |
Commodity Prices and the
Global Economy |
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.2. |
China: Recent Commodity
Market Developments |
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.3. |
Commodity Supply and
Inventory Developments I |
Chart |
Data |
1.SF.4. |
Commodity Supply and
Inventory Developments II |
Chapter 2: Country and
Regional Perspectives
Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
East-West Linkages and
Spillovers in Europe |
Tables |
2.1 |
Selected
European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.2 |
Selected
Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.3 |
Selected
Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current
Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.4 |
Selected
Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.5 |
Commonwealth
of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
2.6 |
Selected
Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and
Unemployment |
2.7 |
Selected
Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer
Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
Revisions to the 2012
WEO Growth Projections and Trade Linkages with Europe
|
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
The Effects of an
Intensified Euro Area Crisis on Various Regions
|
Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Europe: Revisions to the
2012 WEO Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Europe: Back in
Recession |
Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
Trade and Financial
Linkages with the Euro Area |
Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
United States and
Canada: Revisions to 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
United States: Pulling
Itself Up by Its Bootstraps |
Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Asia: Revisions to 2012
GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.9 |
Asia: Growth Is
Moderating |
Chart |
Data |
2.10 |
Latin America and the
Caribbean: Revisions to 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.11 |
Latin America: Watch Out
for Downdrafts |
Chart |
Data |
2.12 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: Revisions to 2012 GDP Growth
Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.13 |
Commonwealth of
Independent States: Buoyed by Commodity Prices, Buffeted
by Euro Area Headwinds |
Chart |
Data |
2.14 |
Middle East and North
Africa: Revisions to 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.15 |
Middle East and North
Africa: A Sea of Troubles |
Chart |
Data |
2.16 |
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Revisions to 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts |
Chart |
Data |
2.17 |
Sub-Saharan Africa:
Continued Resilience |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.1 |
Euro Area Bank
Participation in Global Lending, September 2011 |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.2 |
Regional Exposure to
Banks’ Foreign Claims |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.3 |
Regional Vulnerabilities |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.4 |
Evolution of Banks’
Foreign Claims over Time |
Chart |
Data |
2.SF.5 |
Potential Impact of Euro
Area Bank Deleveraging on Growth |
Chapter 3: Dealing with
Household Debt
Households in many economies are grappling with elevated
debt burdens following the fall in asset prices since the
Great Recession. This chapter analyzes the effects of
household debt in the aftermath of housing busts and how
government policies can reduce the economic costs.
Boxes |
3.1 |
The U.S. Home Owners' Loan
Corporation |
3.2 |
Household Debt
Restructuring in Iceland |
Tables |
3.1 |
Government-Supported
Out-of-Court Debt Restructuring Programs in Selected
Case Study Countries |
3.2 |
Real Consumption following
Housing Busts: Robustness |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Household Debt, House
Prices, and Nonperforming Mortgage Loans, 2002–10 |
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
The Great Recession:
Consumption Loss versus Precrisis Rise in Household Debt |
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Economic Activity during
Housing Busts |
Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
Housing Wealth and
Household Consumption |
Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Household Debt during
Housing Busts |
Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Household Consumption
|
Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
Economic Activity during
the Great Recession in the United States |
Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
Estimated House Price
Misalignment in the United States |
Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
Foreclosures and
Household Debt during the Great Depression in the United
States |
Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
Household Balance Sheets
during the Great Recession in Iceland |
Chart |
Data |
3.11 |
The U.S. Housing Market,
2000–11 |
Chart |
Data |
3.12 |
Government Debt in the
Scandinavian Countries, 1988–95 |
Chapter 4: Commodity
Price Swings and Commodity Exporters
Commodity exporters have benefited from the run-up of
commodity prices over the past decade, exhibiting resilience
to recent weakness in the global economy. However, since
downside risks remain large, the near-term prospects for
commodity exporters are a concern. What policies should
exporters use if prices plateau or fall?
Boxes |
Chart
Chart
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data
Data
Data |
4.1 |
Macroeconomic Effects of
Commodity Price Shocks on Low-Income Countries |
|
|
4.2 |
Volatile
Commodity Prices and the Development Challenge in
Low-Income Countries |
Tables |
4.1 |
Average Economic
Performance of Net Commodity Exporters, 1970–2010 |
4.2 |
Economic Performance of Net
Commodity Exporters during the 2000s |
4.3 |
Relationship between
Commodity Price Swings and Banking Crises in Commodity
Exporters |
4.4 |
Dynamic Effects of Global
Commodity Market Shocks |
4.5 |
Domestic Macroeconomic
Effects of Global Commodity Market Shocks |
4.6 |
Comparison of Policy
Instruments for Permanent Increases in Oil Royalties |
4.7 |
Commodity Intensity in
Exports |
4.8 |
Statistical Properties of
Real Commodity Prices |
Figures |
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
World Commodity Prices,
1970–2011 |
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Share of Net Commodity
Exports in Total Exports and GDP |
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
Macroeconomic
Performance of Commodity Exporters during Commodity
Price Swings |
Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Macroeconomic
Performance of Exporters of Four Major Commodities
during Commodity Price Swings |
Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
The Exchange Rate Regime
and Exporter Performance during Commodity Price Swings |
Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Capital Account Openness
and Exporter Performance during Commodity Price Swings |
Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Real Output Effects of
Commodity Market Shocks |
Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
Oil Price Drivers,
Cycles, and Performance in Net Oil Exporters
|
Chart |
Data |
4.9 |
Dynamic Effects of a
Temporary Reduction in Oil Supply in the Rest of the
World on a Small, Open Oil Exporter |
Chart |
Data |
4.10 |
Dynamic Effects of a
Temporary Increase in Liquidity in the Rest of the World
on a Small, Open Oil Exporter |
Chart |
Data |
4.11 |
Optimal Fiscal Policy
Stance under Alternative Policy Frameworks and
Structural Characteristics |
Chart |
Data |
4.12 |
Duration of Commodity
Price Upswings and Downswings |
Chart |
Data |
4.13 |
Amplitude of Commodity
Price Upswings and Downswings |
Chart |
Data |
4.14 |
Correlation of Global
Real GDP Growth and Real Oil Price Forecast Errors |
Statistical Appendix
Source |