Table 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook
Projections |
(Percent change
unless noted otherwise) |
|
|
Year over Year |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Projections |
|
Difference from
October 2012 WEO Projections |
|
Q4 over Q4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Estimates |
Projections |
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
2013 |
2014 |
|
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
|
World Output 1/ |
3.9 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
2.9 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
Advanced Economies |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
0.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
United States |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
1.9 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
Euro Area |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
0.7 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
Germany |
3.1 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
0.6 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
France |
1.7 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
Italy |
0.4 |
2.1 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
|
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
2.4 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
Spain |
0.4 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
0.8 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
1.9 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
Japan |
0.6 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
|
0.0 |
0.4 |
|
0.2 |
2.6 |
0.1 |
United Kingdom |
0.9 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
0.0 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
Canada |
2.6 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
1.3 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
Other Advanced Economies 2/ |
3.3 |
1.9 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
2.0 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
Newly Industrialized Asian
Economies |
4.0 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
|
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
2.4 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
Emerging Market and
Developing Economies 3/ |
6.3 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
5.9 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
5.5 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
Central and Eastern Europe |
5.3 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
1.6 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
Commonwealth of Independent
States |
4.9 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
2.4 |
4.3 |
3.4 |
Russia |
4.3 |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
2.4 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
Excluding Russia |
6.2 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
|
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Developing Asia |
8.0 |
6.6 |
7.1 |
7.5 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
7.3 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
China |
9.3 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
8.1 |
7.9 |
8.8 |
India |
7.9 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
6.4 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
5.4 |
6.0 |
6.4 |
ASEAN-5 4/ |
4.5 |
5.7 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
7.7 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
Latin America and the Caribbean |
4.5 |
3.0 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
|
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
3.1 |
4.2 |
3.6 |
Brazil |
2.7 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
|
0.4 |
0.2 |
|
2.1 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
Mexico |
3.9 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
2.8 |
4.9 |
2.5 |
Middle East and North Africa |
3.5 |
5.2 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
|
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Sub-Saharan Africa 5/ |
5.3 |
4.8 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
South Africa |
3.5 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
|
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
1.5 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
Memorandum |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
European Union |
1.6 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
World Growth Based on Market
Exchange Rates |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
|
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
2.1 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
World Trade Volume (goods
and services) |
5.9 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
5.5 |
|
0.7 |
0.3 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Imports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Advanced Economies |
4.6 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
4.1 |
|
1.1 |
0.4 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Emerging Market and
Developing Economies |
8.4 |
6.1 |
6.5 |
7.8 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Exports |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Advanced Economies |
5.6 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
4.5 |
|
0.8 |
0.4 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Emerging Market and
Developing Economies |
6.6 |
3.6 |
5.5 |
6.9 |
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
Commodity Prices (U.S.
dollars) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oil 6/ |
31.6 |
1.0 |
5.1 |
2.9 |
|
4.1 |
1.3 |
|
1.0 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
Nonfuel (average based on world
commodity export weights) |
17.8 |
9.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
0.1 |
1.9 |
|
1.2 |
4.2 |
2.6 |
Consumer Prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Advanced Economies |
2.7 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
Emerging Market and Developing
Economies 3/ |
7.2 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
5.5 |
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
London Interbank Offered
Rate (percent) 7/ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On U.S. Dollar Deposits |
0.5 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
On Euro Deposits |
1.4 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
On Japanese Yen Deposits |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
. . . |
. . . |
. . . |
|
Note: Real effective exchange rates
are assumed to remain constant at the levels
prevailing during November 12December 10, 2012.
When economies are not listed alphabetically, they
are ordered on the basis of economic size. The
aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
1/ The quarterly estimates and projections account
for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity
weights.
2/ Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy,
Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area
countries.
3/ The quarterly estimates and projections account
for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market
and developing economies.
4/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam.
5/ Regional and global aggregates include South
Sudan.
6/ Simple average of prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai,
and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average
price of oil in U.S. dollars a barrel was $105.08 in
2012; the assumed price based on futures markets is
$99.71in 2013 and $96.78 in 2014.
7/ Six-month rate for the United States and Japan.
Three-month rate for the euro area. |
The near-term growth outlook for Japan has
not been downgraded despite renewed recession. Activity is
expected to expand by 1.2 percent in 2013, broadly unchanged
from October. The recession is expected to be short-lived
because the effects of temporary factors, such as the car
subsidy and disruptions to trade with China, will subside. And a
sizeable fiscal stimulus package and further monetary easing
will give growth at least a near-term boost, with support from a
pickup in external demand and a weaker yen.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies
is on track to build to 5.5 percent in 2013. Nevertheless,
growth is not projected to rebound to the high rates recorded in
201011. Supportive policies have underpinned much of the recent
acceleration in activity in many economies. But weakness in
advanced economies will weigh on external demand, as well as on
the terms of trade of commodity exporters, given the assumption
of lower commodity prices in 2013 in this Update.
Moreover, the space for further policy easing has diminished,
while supply bottlenecks and policy uncertainty have hampered
growth in some economies (for example, Brazil, India). Activity
in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain robust, with a
rebound from flood-related output disruptions in Nigeria
contributing to an acceleration in overall growth in the region
in 2013.
Against this backdrop, the projections in this WEO Update
imply that global growth will strengthen
gradually through 2013, averaging 3.5 percent on an annual
basis, a moderate uptick from 3.2 percent in 2012, but 0.1
percentage point lower than projected in the October 2012 WEO. A
further strengthening to 4.1 percent is projected for 2014,
assuming recovery takes a firm hold in the euro area economy.
Policy Action Is Needed to Secure the Fragile Global
Recovery
The policy requirements outlined in the October 2012 WEO
remain relevant. Most advanced economies face two challenges.
First, they need steady and sustained fiscal consolidation.
Second, financial sector reform must continue to decrease risks
in the financial system. Addressing these challenges will
support recovery and reduce downside risks.
The euro area continues to pose a large
downside risk to the global outlook. In particular, risks of
prolonged stagnation in the euro area as a whole will rise if
the momentum for reform is not maintained. Adjustment efforts in
the periphery countries need to be sustained and must be
supported by the center, including through full deployment of
European firewalls, utilization of the flexibility offered by
the Fiscal Compact, and further steps toward full banking union
and greater fiscal integration.
In the United States, the priority is to
avoid excessive fiscal consolidation in the short term, promptly
raise the debt ceiling, and agree on a credible medium-term
fiscal consolidation plan, focused on entitlement and tax
reform.
In Japan, the priority is to underpin the
renewed emphasis on raising growth and inflation with more
ambitious monetary policy easing, adopt a credible medium-term
fiscal consolidation plan anchored by the consumption tax
increases in 201415, and raise potential growth through
structural reforms. Absent a strong medium-term fiscal strategy,
the stimulus package carries important risks. Specifically, the
stimulus-induced recovery could prove short lived, and the debt
outlook significantly worse.
In China, ensuring sustained rapid growth
requires continued progress with market-oriented structural
reforms and rebalancing of the economy more toward private
consumption. In other emerging market and developing
economies, requirements differ. The general challenge
is to rebuild macroeconomic policy space. The appropriate pace
of rebuilding must balance external downside risks against risks
of rising domestic imbalances. In some economies with large
external surpluses and low public debt, this entails a lower,
more sustainable pace of credit growth and fiscal measures to
support domestic demand. In others, fiscal deficits need to be
rolled back further, while monetary tightening proceeds
gradually. Macroprudential measures can help stem emerging
financial excesses. In the Middle East and North Africa
region, many countries will need to maintain
macroeconomic stability under difficult internal and external
conditions.