Contents |
Preface |
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Executive Summary |
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1. | Introduction |
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2. | Restoring Order: Reassuring
Markets about Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area |
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3. | The Dog That Didn't Bark (So
Far): Low Interest Rates in the United States and Japan |
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4. | Too Good to Be True? Fiscal
Developments in Emerging Economies |
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5. | The Legacy of the Crisis: How
Long Will It Take to Lower Public Debt? |
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6. | Confronting Trade-Offs:
Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries |
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7. | Conclusion | ||
Appendixes |
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1. | "Fiscal Devaluation": What Is Itand Does It Work? | ||
2. | Insights for Privatization Plans from Previous Large Episodes | ||
3. | The Importance of Monitoring Both Gross and Net Debt | ||
4. | Stock-Flow Adjustments and Their Determinants | ||
Methodological and Statistical Appendix | |||
Glossary |
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Abbreviations |
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References |
Boxes |
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1. | United States: Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Contingent Liabilities | ||
2. | Risks to the Baseline | ||
3. | Fiscal Developments in Oil-Producing Economies | ||
4. | Determinants of Domestic Bond Yields in Emerging Economies | ||
5. | The Fiscal Indicators Index | ||
6. | Factors Underlying the Debt Increase Precrisis versus End-2015 | ||
7. | Financial Sector Support and Recovery to Date | ||
8. | Global Fuel and Food Price Shocks and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries | ||
9. | Adjusting Public Capital Stock for Investment Inefficiency | ||
Figures | |||
1. | G-7 Sovereign Bond Yields | ||
2. | Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads over German Bunds | ||
3. | Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads, General Government Gross Debt, and Projected Real GDP Growth | ||
4. | Fiscal Fundamentals in the G-7 Economies plus Spain, 2011 | ||
5. | Advanced Economies: Average Bond Maturity | ||
6. | Holders of Government Debt | ||
7. | Emerging Economies: Median 5-Year CDS Spreads | ||
8. | Emerging Economies: Differences in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances, 2011, Compared with the Precrisis Period | ||
9. | Components of the Fiscal Indicators Index, 19962011 | ||
10. | Fiscal Indicators Index by Region, 200111 | ||
11. | Emerging Economies: Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance and in Output Gap, 2011 | ||
12. | Comparing Fiscal Fundamentals across Emerging Economies, 2011 | ||
13. | Selected Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt | ||
14. | Advanced Economies: Change in Overall Balance and General Government Gross Debt, 201011 | ||
15. | Advanced Economies: Decomposition of 2011 Debt Accumulation | ||
16. | Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance That Needs to Be Maintained in 202030 to Achieve Debt Target by 2030 | ||
17. | Largest Average Primary Surplus over a 10-Year Period | ||
Tables | |||
1. | Fiscal Balances, 200812 | ||
2. | Fiscal Balances in 201112: Medium-Term Plans and IMF Staff Projections | ||
3. | Selected Advanced Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 201113 | ||
4. | Selected Emerging Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 201112 | ||
5a. | Advanced Economies: General Government Debt and Primary Balance | ||
5b. | Emerging Economies: General Government Debt and Primary Balance | ||
6. | Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability Risks, 2011 | ||
Statistical Tables | |||
1. | General Government Balance | ||
2. | General Government Primary Balance | ||
3. | General Government Cyclically Adjusted Overall Balance | ||
4. | General Government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance | ||
5. | General Government Expenditure | ||
6. | General Government Revenue | ||
7. | General Government Gross Debt | ||
8. | General Government Net Debt | ||
9. | Structural Fiscal Indicators | ||
Fiscal Monitor Database | |||
Data | Application |