Executive Summary |
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1.
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Outlook:
Dealing with Shocks |
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Advanced Economies |
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Emerging Economies |
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2.
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Europe: Coping
with High Commodity Prices |
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Commodity Price Boom:
Causes and Prospects |
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Effect of Commodity
Price Increases on Inflation in the Advanced
Economies |
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Effect of Commodity
Price Increases on Inflation in the Emerging
Economies |
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Policy Responses |
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Policy Conclusions |
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3.
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The European
Credit Cycle: Diverging Patterns |
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Overview |
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Vulnerability to
Changes in Financial Conditions |
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Borrowing against
Collateral: How Do Financial Cycles Get Amplified? |
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From Financial
Conditions to the Macroeconomy |
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Cross-Border Lending:
Further Benefits and Risks |
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What Are the
Implications for Policy? |
4.
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Cross-Border
Labor Flows in New Member States: Patterns and
Challenges |
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Overview |
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Patterns |
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Impact of Labor
Mobility on Convergence |
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References |
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Boxes |
1. |
How Strong Is the Euro? |
2. |
The Baltics: Harder
Times Ahead |
3. |
Russia: Dealing with
Surging Commodity Exports |
4. |
Pass-Through of
Commodity Price Shocks to Inflation in Some Advanced
European Economies |
5. |
Inflation Outlook in
the Euro Area |
6. |
The Effects of Cutting
Taxes on Gasoline |
7. |
Impact of High Oil
Prices on Potential Output in Europe |
8. |
Does the Driver of the
Energy Imbalance Matter? |
9. |
European Securitization
and the Possible Revival of Financial Innovation |
10. |
Institutional Features
of Mortgage Markets in Europe |
11. |
Financial Integration
and Growth: Are They Related, and How? |
12. |
Countercyclical Credit
Risk Provisioning: The Spanish Experience |
13. |
Cross-Border Financial
Stability in the European Union: Where Do We Stand? |
14. |
Migration and Economic
Convergence in the New Member States |
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Tables |
1. |
European Countries:
Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006-09 |
2. |
European Countries:
External and Fiscal Balances, Government Debt,
2006-09 |
3. |
Response of Domestic
Food and Energy Inflation to International Commodity
Price Inflation Shocks |
4. |
Response of Core
Inflation to Shocks to Domestic Food and Energy
Price Inflation |
5. |
Emerging and Developing
Europe: Policy Responses to Inflation Pressures |
6. |
Selected European
Countries: Financial Conditions and Real Activity:
Correlations and Variance Decompositions |
7. |
Increase in Volatility
Due to a Rise in the Procyclicality of Lending with
and without Financial Cross-Border Spillovers |
8. |
New Member States: Net
Migration Rates, 1992-2007 |
9. |
Largest Source
Countries for Immigration in OECD European
Countries, 2000 and 2005 |
10. |
New Member States: Net
Migration Rates by Age Cohorts, 2004-06 |
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Figures |
1. |
Key Short-Term
Indicators |
2. |
Europe and the United
States: Real GDP Growth, 2001-09 |
3. |
Estimating Shifts in
the Global Price of Risk, 2007-08 |
4. |
Spreads of Three-Month
Interbank Rates over Expected Policy Rates, 2007-08 |
5. |
Changes in Credit
Standards for Loans and Lending to Enterprises,
2005-08 |
6. |
Growth in Emerging
Europe, 2004-09 |
7. |
Inflation in Emerging
Europe, 2004-09 |
8. |
Emerging Europe: Annual
Inflation Excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol, and
Tobacco |
9. |
Sovereign Spreads, July
25, 2007-September 16, 2008 |
10. |
Emerging Europe EMBI+,
January 2007-September 2008 |
11. |
Metals, Food, and Oil
Prices in Real Terms, 1960:Q1-2008:Q2 |
12. |
Advanced and Emerging
Europe: Contribution of Food and Fuel Price
Increases to Headline Inflation |
13. |
Contributors to Price
Increases of Major Foods |
14. |
Headline and Core
Inflation, January 2004-August 2008 |
15. |
Inflation Expectations
in the Euro Area and the United Kingdom, 2001-08 |
16. |
Labor Costs in the Euro
Area, 2000:Q4-2008:Q2 |
17. |
Core Inflation |
18. |
Inflation Expectations
12 Months Ahead, 2005-08 |
19. |
Changes in Unit Labor
Costs, 2005-07 |
20. |
Wage Resistance and a
Policy Error |
21. |
Flow of Borrowing in
Selected EU Countries: Corporate and Household
Sectors, 2002-06 |
22. |
Corporate and Household
Debt in Selected EU Countries, 2002-06 |
23. |
Average Changes in
Asset Prices, 2002-06 |
24. |
Borrowing against
Collateral in the Mortgage Market, 2002-06 |
25. |
The Financial
Accelerator in Economies Characterized by Different
Borrowing Limits: Impulse Response Functions to an
Adverse Shock to Underlying Productivity
|
26. |
Financial Conditions
Indices for the Corporate Sector: Dynamics and
Contributions, 2003-08 |
27. |
Share of Output
Variation Explained by Credit and Asset Price Shocks |
28. |
Cyclicality of Lending
and Sensitivity of Credit Growth to Changes in Asset
Prices, 2003-08 |
29. |
Cyclicality of Lending
and Macroeconomic Volatility, 2003-08 |
30. |
Measuring Risk Sharing
across European Countries |
31. |
Measuring Cross-Border
Financial Spillovers: Response of Financial Variable
to a One-Standard-Error Reduction in U.S. Equity
Prices |
32. |
Stability Gains from
Reducing Cyclicality in Lending |
33. |
Residents from the
NMS-8 in the EU-15, 2000-06 |
34. |
Germany: Seasonal
Migratory Workers, 1995-2007 |
35. |
New Member States:
Income per Capita Relative to EU-27, 2000 and 2007 |
36. |
Simulated Developments
in Productivity, Foreign Labor, Consumption, and
Output |
37. |
Simulated Developments
in Relative Prices, Current Account, Trade Balance,
and Wages |
38. |
New Member States: Real
Wage Developments, 2004-2008:Q1 |
39. |
New Member States: Job
Vacancy Rates, 2005-07 |
40. |
Foreign Labor
Developments with and without Overheating
(Simulated) |
41. |
Impact of Bust on
Foreign Labor (Simulated) |
42. |
New Member States:
Employment Rate, 2000-07 |
43. |
New Member States:
Unemployment Rate, 2000-08 |