189 kb |
Assumptions
and Conventions |
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Preface |
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Foreword |
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Chapter I.
Economic Prospects and Policy Issues |
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United States
and Canada: Robust Growth Set to Continue, but the U.S. Housing
Market Is a Key Uncertainty |
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Western
Europe: Is the Expansion Finally Gaining Traction? |
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Japan and
Other Industrial Countries in Asia: Managing Three Major
Transitions in Japan |
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Emerging Asia:
Strong Growth Expected to Continue |
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Latin America:
Improving the Business Climate Key to Raising Long-Term Growth |
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Emerging
Europe: Addressing Rising Current Account Deficits |
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Commonwealth of Independent States: A Rebalancing
of Growth is Needed to Sustain the Expansion
Comunitatea Statelor
Independente: pentru menţinerea expansiunii este necesară o
re-echilibrare a creşterii economice
(cu traducere in română!)
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Africa:
Sustaining the Recent Growth Acceleration |
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Middle East:
Booming Asset Prices Across the Region |
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Appendix 1.1
Recent Developments in Commodity Markets |
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Appendix 1.2
The Global Implications of an Avian Flu Pandemic |
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References |
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Chapter II.
Oil Prices and Global Imbalances |
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How Does the
Current Oil Price Shock Compare with Previous Episodes? |
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How Will the
Current Oil Price Shock Affect Global Imbalances? |
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Conclusions |
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Appendix 2.1
Oil Prices and Global Imbalances: Methodology, Data, and Further
Results |
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References |
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Chapter III.
How Has Globalization Affected Inflation? |
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Recent
Inflation Developments |
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Understanding
Globalization and Inflation: A Broad Framework |
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Globalization
and Inflation: An Aggregate Perspective |
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A Sectoral
Perspective on Globalization and Prices |
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A Cost
Perspective on the Moderation in Sectoral Producer Prices
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Summary and
Policy Conclusions |
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Appendix 3.1
Sample Composition, Data Sources, and Methods |
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Appendix 3.2 A
Sectoral Perspective on Globalization and Inflation |
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References |
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Chapter IV.
Awash With Cash: Why Are Corporate Savings So High? |
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What Has Been
Driving the Increase in Corporate Excess Saving? |
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Are Current
Trends in Corporate Excess Saving Sustainable? |
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Conclusions
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Appendix 4.1.
Econometric Methodology |
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References |
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61 kb |
Annex: IMF
Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2006 |
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Statistical
Appendix |
361 kb |
Assumptions |
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What’s New |
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Data and
Conventions |
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Classification
of Countries |
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List of Tables |
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Output (Tables
1–6) |
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Inflation
(Tables 7–11) |
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Financial
Policies (Tables 12–19) |
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Foreign Trade
(Tables 20–24) |
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Current
Account Transactions (Tables 25–31) |
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Balance of
Payments and External Financing (Tables 32–36) |
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External Debt
and Debt Service (Tables 37–42) |
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Flow of Funds
(Table 43) |
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Medium-Term
Baseline Scenario (Tables 44–45) |
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68 kb |
World Economic
Outlook
and
Staff Studies
for the World Economic Outlook,
Selected Topics |
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Chapter I
Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Long-Term Interest Rates from a Historical Perspective |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.2 |
The Impact of Recent Housing Market Adjustments in Industrial
Countries |
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1.3 |
How Accurate Are the Forecasts in the
World Economic Outlook? |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
1.4 |
How Much Progress Has Been Made in Addressing Global Imbalances? |
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1.5 |
The Doha Round After The Hong Kong SAR Meetings |
Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
China’s GDP Revision: What Does It Mean for China and The Global
Economy? |
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1.7 |
The Spanish Flu of 1918–19 |
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Chapter II
Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
2.1 |
How Rapidly Are Oil Exporters Spending Their Revenue Gains? |
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2.2 |
Recycling Petrodollars in the 1970s |
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2.3 |
The Impact of Petrodollars on U.S. and Emerging Market Bond
Yields |
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Chapter III
Boxes |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Globalization and Inflation in Emerging Markets |
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Globalization and Low Inflation in a Historical Perspective |
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices |
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Chapter IV
Boxes |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
4.1 |
Drawing the Line Between Personal and Corporate Savings |
Chart
Chart |
Data
Data |
4.2 |
Trends in the Financial Sector’s Profits and Savings |
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A1 |
Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for
Selected Advanced Economies |
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Tables |
1.1 |
Overview of
the World Economic Outlook Projections |
1.2 |
Emerging
Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows |
1.3 |
Major
Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt |
1.4 |
Advanced
Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment |
1.5 |
Selected
Economies: Current Account Positions |
1.6 |
Selected
Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account
Balance |
1.7 |
Selected
Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance |
1.8 |
Emerging
Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance |
1.9 |
Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
and Current Account Balance |
1.10 |
Selected
African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current
Account Balance |
1.11 |
Selected
Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current
Account Balance |
1.12 |
Global Oil
Demand by Region |
1.13 |
Nonenergy
Commodity Prices |
2.1 |
Increase in
Fuel Exporters’ Net Oil Exports |
2.2 |
Change in
Net Oil Exports, 2002–05 |
2.3 |
Petroleum
Reserves |
2.4 |
Composition
of Merchandise Imports |
2.5 |
Impact of
Oil Price Shock: Greater Spending by Fuel Exporters |
2.6 |
Impact of
Oil Price Shock: Delayed Pass-Through to Core Inflation |
3.1 |
Estimates
of Output-Inflation Sensitivity and Inflation Persistence in
Advanced Economies |
3.2 |
The
Cumulative Impact of a 1 Percent Decrease in Real Import Prices
on Inflation |
3.3 |
Impact of
Trade Openness on Relative Producer Price Inflation |
3.4 |
Producer
Price Inflation by Cost Components |
3.5 |
Impact of
Trade Openness on Productivity, Labor Compensation, and Unit
Labor Costs |
3.6 |
Inflation
in Advanced Economies: SUR Estimates |
3.7 |
Classification of Sectors by Technological and Skill Intensity |
3.8 |
Impact of
Changes in Import Prices on Relative Producer Price Inflation |
3.9 |
Impact of
Trade Openness on Cost Components |
4.1 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Change in Selected Variables |
4.2 |
Group of
Seven (G-7) Countries: Cash Accumulation by Size of Firm’s Sales |
4.3 |
Defined
Benefits Corporate Pension Plans: Assets Over Liabilities |
4.4 |
Weighted
Average, Median, and 90th Percentile of Selected Series, by
Change in Cash to Total Assets Quartile, 2001–04 |
4.5 |
Regression
Results: Dependent Variable—Change in Cash and Short-Term
Investments |
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Chapter I
Charts
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Chart |
Data |
1.1 |
Prospects
for World GDP Growth |
Chart |
Data |
1.2 |
Global
Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.3 |
Current and
Forward-Looking Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
1.4 |
Developments in Mature Financial Markets |
Chart |
Data |
1.5 |
Emerging
Market Financial Conditions |
Chart |
Data |
1.6 |
Global
Exchange Rate Developments |
Chart |
Data |
1.7 |
Global
Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
1.8 |
Global
Outlook |
Chart |
Data |
1.9 |
Fiscal and
Monetary Policies in the Major Advanced Economies |
Chart |
Data |
1.10 |
How Will
Global Imbalances Adjust? |
Chart |
Data |
1.11 |
United
States: The Housing Market and Growth |
Chart |
Data |
1.12 |
Western
Europe: Social Policy Indicators and Outcomes |
Chart |
Data |
1.13 |
Japan:
Reversing the Relative Decline in per Capita GDP Growth |
Chart |
Data |
1.14 |
Emerging
Asia: Understanding Recent Developments in the Current Account |
Chart |
Data |
1.15 |
Latin
America: Public Debt Ratios and Investment |
Chart |
Data |
1.16 |
Emerging
Europe: Current Account Deficits Remain High |
Chart |
Data |
1.17 |
Commonwealth of Independent States: Unbalanced Growth Raises
Concerns About the Outlook |
Chart |
Data |
1.18 |
Sub-Saharan
Africa: Growth, Investment and Economic Transitions |
Chart |
Data |
1.19 |
Middle
East: Surging Asset Markets |
Chart |
Data |
1.20 |
Crude Oil
Prices, Futures, and Petroleum Product Prices |
Chart |
Data |
1.21 |
World
Refinery Capacity, Spare Capacity and Production |
Chart |
Data |
1.22 |
Commercial
Oil Inventories, Spot and Future Prices |
Chart |
Data |
1.23 |
Energy
Prices, Taxes, and Fuel Subsidies |
Chart |
Data |
1.24 |
Nonenergy
Commodities |
Chart |
Data |
1.25 |
Semiconductor Market |
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Chapter II
Charts |
Chart |
Data |
2.1 |
Current
Account Balances and Net Foreign Asset Positions |
Chart |
Data |
2.2 |
Real Oil
Prices and Net Oil Exports |
Chart |
Data |
2.3 |
Fuel
Exporters’ Cumulative Current Account Balances and Capital Flows |
Chart |
Data |
2.4 |
Fuel
Exporters’ Cumulative Current Account Balances and Identified
Asset Purchases |
Chart |
Data |
2.5 |
Current
Account and Oil Trade Balances |
Chart |
Data |
2.6 |
Impact of
Oil Price Shocks on External Imbalances, 1972–2004 |
Chart
Chart |
Data |
2.7 |
Adjustment
to Oil Price Shocks, 1979:Q2–2003:Q4 |
Chart
Chart |
Data |
2.8 |
Additional
Results: Adjustment to Oil Price Shocks, 1979:Q2–2003:Q4 |
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Chapter III
Charts |
Chart |
Data |
3.1 |
Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
3.2 |
Inflation
Volatility |
Chart |
Data |
3.3 |
Prices of
Goods and Services |
Chart |
Data |
3.4 |
Trade and
Financial Openness |
Chart |
Data |
3.5 |
Inflation
over the Business Cycle, 1961–2003 |
Chart |
Data |
3.6 |
Selected
Structural Indicators |
Chart |
Data |
3.7 |
Import
Prices |
Chart |
Data |
3.8 |
The Impact
of Import Prices on CPI Inflation |
Chart |
Data |
3.9 |
Inflation
in Manufacturing and Business Services in Selected Industrial
Countries |
Chart |
Data |
3.10 |
Relative
Producer Price Inflation by Technological and Skill Intensity |
Chart |
Data |
3.11 |
Producer
Price Inflation and Openness |
Chart |
Data |
3.12 |
Contributions to Declines in Relative Producer Prices |
Chart |
Data |
3.13 |
Producer
Price Inflation by Cost Components |
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Chapter IV
Charts |
Chart |
Data |
4.1 |
Group of
Seven (G-7), Excluding Germany: Gross Saving, Capital Spending,
and Net Lending/Borrowing |
Chart |
Data |
4.2 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Gross Saving, Capital Spending,
and Net Lending/Borrowing |
Chart |
Data |
4.3 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Gross Operating Surplus and
Profits |
Chart |
Data |
4.4 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Sector: Financial Accounts, Selected
Variables |
Chart |
Data |
4.5 |
Financial
Transactions: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector of the G-7 Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.6 |
Cash
Accumulation in the G-7 Countries by Industry |
Chart |
Data |
4.7 |
Sales
Volatility and Intangible Assets in the G-7 Countries |
Chart |
Data |
4.8 |
Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Debt |