WEO

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Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policy Issues
	Assumptions and Conventions, Preface, Foreword
	Executive Summary

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	Global Economic Environment
	Outlook and Short-Term Risks
	Cross-Country Spillovers: Can the Global Economy Decouple from a U.S. Slowdown?
	Medium-Term Challenges: Can the Productivity Boom Be Sustained?
	Policy Challenges
	Appendix 1.1. Recent Developments in Commodity Markets
	References

Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
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	United States and Canada: How Much Will the U.S. Economy Slow?
	Western Europe: Can Recent Vigor Be Sustained?
	Industrial Asia: Japan's Expansion Remains on Track
	Emerging Asia: How Resilient Is the Region to a U.S. Slowdown?
	Latin America: Boosting Productivity Is the Key to Sustaining Growth
	Emerging Europe: Integrating with the European Union
	Commonwealth of Independent States: Strong Growth but More Economic Diversification Needed (html text format)
	Africa: Sustaining Recent Growth Momentum
	Middle East: Expanding the Benefits of the Oil Boom
	References

Chapter 3. Exchange Rates and the Adjustment of External Imbalances
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	Past Episodes of Large External Imbalances: An Event Analysis
	How Responsive Are U.S. Trade Volumes to Exchange Rate Movements?
	Implications for Global Imbalances
	Conclusions
	Appendix 3.1. Event Analysis: Methodology and Data
	Appendix 3.2. Econometric Estimates of Trade Models
	References

Chapter 4. Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy
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	U.S. Economy and International Business Cycle Fluctuations
	Identifying Common Elements in International Business Cycle Fluctuations
	How the United States Affects the Global Economy—A Model-Based Simulation Analysis
	Summary and Conclusions
	Appendix 4.1. Econometric Methodology
	Appendix 4.2. Common Elements in International Business Cycle Fluctuations: Description of the Dynamic Factor Models
	References

Chapter 5. The Globalization of Labor
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	How Globalized Is Labor?
	How Has the Globalization of Labor Affected Workers in Advanced Economies?
	Summary and Policy Implications
	Appendix 5.1. Data Sources and Methods
	References

	Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, March 2007

Statistical Appendix
	Assumptions
	What's New
	Data and Conventions
	Classification of Countries
	General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook
	Classification
	General Features and Composition of Countries in the World Economic Outlook Classification

List of boxes
	Output (Tables 1–6)
	Inflation (Tables 7–11)
	Financial Policies (Tables 12–19)
	Foreign Trade (Tables 20–24)
	Current Account Transactions (Tables 25–31)
	Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 32–36)
	External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 37–42)
	Flow of Funds (Table 43)
	Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 44–45)

	World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics

Chapter 1 Boxes
Chart Chart	Data Data	1.1	Understanding the Link Between Oil Prices and the World Economy
Chart	Data	1.2	Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability in G-7 Countries
Chart	Data	1.3	Oil Consumption Across Major Countries: Is the United States Different?
Chart Chart	Data Data	1.4	Hedging Against Oil Price Volatility
Chapter 2 Boxes
Chart	Data	2.1	Housing Market Slowdowns
Chart	Data	2.2	Lessons from Successful European Labor Market Reformers
Chart Chart	Data Data	2.3	Is China Investing Too Much?

Chapter 3 Boxes
Chart	Data	3.1	External Sustainability and Financial Integration
Chart Chart	Data Data	3.2	Large and Persistent Current Account Imbalances
		3.3	Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices and External Adjustment

Chapter 4 Boxes
Chart	Data	4.1	Financial Linkages and Spillovers
Chart Chart	Data Data	4.2	Macroeconomic Conditions in Industrial Countries and Financial Flows to Emerging Markets
Chart	Data	4.3	Spillovers and International Business Cycle Synchronization: A Broader Perspective

Chapter 5 Boxes
		5.1	Emigration and Trade: How Do They Affect Developing Countries?

Appendix Boxes
		A1.	Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies

Tables
1.1	Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
1.2	Emerging Market and Developing Countries: Net Capital Flows
1.3	Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
1.4	Global Oil Demand by Region
1.5	Effects of Petroleum Products on Production of Selected Grains in the United States
2.1	Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
2.2	Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions
2.3	Selected Asian Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.4	Selected Western Hemisphere Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.5	Emerging Europe: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.6	Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.7	Selected African Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.8	Selected Middle Eastern Countries: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
3.1	Summary Statistics of Episodes of Reversals
3.2	Standard Trade Model: Estimates of U.S. Trade Elasticities
3.3	List of Reversal Episodes
3.4	List of Large and Persistent Episodes
3.5	Advanced Economies: Contractionary and Expansionary Deficit Reversals
3.6	Emerging Markets: Contractionary and Expansionary Surplus Reversals
3.7	Variable Definitions
3.8	Standard Empirical Trade Model: Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities
3.9	Long-Run U.S. Trade Elasticities and Aggregation Bias
3.10	Long-Run U.S. Import Elasticities and Vertical Integration
3.11	Nonlinearity Tests (p value) and Thresholds for Changes in Relative Import Prices
3.12	Error Correction Model for U.S. Imports, Sample 1973:Q1—2006:Q3
4.1	Role of Large Economies in the Global Economy
4.2	Export Orientation by Region
4.3	External Portfolio Assets and Liabilities by Region
4.4	U.S. Downturns and Global Growth
4.5	Growth and Spillovers (1)
4.6	Growth and Spillovers (2)
4.7	Contributions to Output Fluctuations
4.8	Consumption
4.9	Investment
4.10	Contributions to Business Cycle Fluctuations in G-7 Countries
5.1	Classification of Sectors by Skill Intensity
5.2	Impact of Labor Globalization and Technological Change on Labor Shares
5.3	Impact of Labor Globalization and Technological Change on the Skilled and Unskilled Labor Shares

Chapter 1 Charts
Chart	Data	1.1	Global Indicators
Chart	Data	1.2	Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
Chart	Data	1.3	Global Inflation
Chart	Data	1.4	Developments in Mature Financial Markets
Chart	Data	1.5	Mature Financial Market Indicators
Chart	Data	1.6	Emerging Market Financial Conditions
Chart	Data	1.7	External Developments in Major Advanced Economies
Chart	Data	1.8	External Developments in Emerging Market Countries
Chart	Data	1.9	Global Outlook
Chart	Data	1.10	Risks to the Global Outlook
Chart	Data	1.11	Productivity and Labor Cost Developments in Selected Advanced Economies
Chart	Data	1.12	Measures of the Output Gap and Capacity Pressures
Chart	Data	1.13	Current Account Balances and Net Foreign Assets
Chart	Data	1.14	Global Productivity Performance
Chart	Data	1.15	Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts
Chart	Data	1.16	Saving and Investment in Emerging Market and Oil-Producing Economies
Chart	Data	1.17	Average Petroleum Spot and Futures Prices, and Selected Energy Product Prices
Chart	Data	1.18	Demand and Prices of Petroleum Products in Selected Developing and OECD Countries
Chart	Data	1.19	Oil Supply, OECD Inventories, and OPEC Spare Capacity
Chart	Data	1.20	Actual and Expected Semiannual World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production Growth, and Brent Crude Oil Prices
Chart	Data	1.21	Commodity Price Indices and Selected Metals and Food Price Indices
Chart	Data	1.22	Semiconductor Market

Chapter 2 Charts
Chart	Data	2.1	United States: How Much Will the U.S. Economy Slow?
Chart	Data	2.2	United States: Developments in the Residential and Nonresidential Construction Sectors
Chart	Data	2.3	Western Europe: Productivity Is Failing to Catch Up
Chart	Data	2.4	Western Europe: Need to do More to Raise Labor Utilization
Chart	Data	2.5	Japan: Understanding Developments in Domestic Demand
Chart	Data	2.6	Emerging Asia: Assessing the Resilience to a Global Slowdown
Chart	Data	2.7	Latin America: Productivity Is Lagging
Chart	Data	2.8	Emerging Europe: Convergence with the European Union
Chart	Data	2.9	Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS): Further Return Needed to Raise Investment Levels
Chart	Data	2.10	Sub-Saharan Africa: Can Recent Growth Momentum Be Sustained?
Chart	Data	2.11	Middle East: Investment in Non-Oil Sectors Key to Employment Growth

Chapter 3 Charts
Chart	Data	3.1	Episodes of Deficit Reversals and Large and Persistent Deficits
Chart	Data	3.2	Advanced Economies: Key Indicators During Deficit Reversals
Chart	Data	3.3	Deficit Reversals in Advanced Economies: Episode Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth
Chart	Data	3.4	Advanced Economies: Total Change in Real Effective Exchange Rate and Average Change in GDP Growth During Deficit Reversals
Chart	Data	3.5	Episodes of Surplus Reversals and Large and Persistent Surpluses
Chart	Data	3.6	Key Indicators During Surplus Reversals
Chart	Data	3.7	Surplus Reversals in Emerging Markets: Episode Characteristics by Average Change in GDP Growth
Chart	Data	3.8	Oil Exporters: Surplus Reversals
Chart	Data	3.9	Thresholds in Relative Trade Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate, and Flexibility of Markets
Chart	Data	3.10	United States: Trade Flows, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), and Growth Differential with Trading Partners
Chart	Data	3.11	Required Exchange Rate Change for a 1 Percentage Point Reduction in the Ratio of U.S. Trade Deficit to GDP
Chart	Data	3.12	Sectoral Price Elasticities of Trade

Chapter 4 Charts
Chart	Data	4.1	U.S. Recessions and Real GDP Growth by Region
Chart	Data	4.2	Trade Orientation
Chart	Data	4.3	United States: Real Imports, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Real Stock Returns, and Interest Rates During Recessions and Slowdowns
Chart	Data	4.4	Output Gaps and Structural Characteristics During U.S. Recessions
Chart	Data	4.5	Growth Declines and Spillovers: Regional Implications
Chart	Data	4.6	Impact of Growth Declines in the United States and Japan
Chart	Data	4.7	Global Factor
Chart	Data	4.8	Global Implications of a Disturbance to U.S. Private Demand
Chart	Data	4.9	Global Growth and Inflation with Correlated Disturbances and Delayed Monetary Policy Response
Chart	Data	4.10	Limited In-Sample Persistence of U.S. Growth Shocks
Chart	Data	4.11	Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in Latin America: Effects by Country
Chart	Data	4.12	Impact of Euro Area Growth Declines on Growth in Latin America: Effects by Country
Chart	Data	4.13	Impact of U.S. Growth Declines on Growth in Emerging Asia: Effects by Country
Chart	Data	4.14	Impact of Japanese Growth Declines on Growth in Emerging Asia: Effects by Country

Chapter 5 Charts
Chart	Data	5.1	Alternative Measures of Global Labor Supply
Chart	Data	5.2	Immigration and Trade
Chart	Data	5.3	Share of Developing Countries in Trade
Chart	Data	5.4	Developing Countries: Exports of Skilled Manufacturing Goods and Services
Chart	Data	5.5	Offshoring by Advanced Economies
Chart	Data	5.6	Advanced Economies: Offshoring by Category of Inputs
Chart Chart	Data Data	5.7	Advanced Economies: Labor Income Shares
Chart	Data	5.8	Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and Employment
Chart	Data	5.9	Advanced Economies: Labor Compensation and Employment in Skilled and Unskilled Sectors
Chart	Data	5.10	Catch-Up by Emerging Markets' Manufacturing Wages
Chart	Data	5.11	Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Capital, Patents, and Labor Market Indicators
Chart	Data	5.12	Contributions to the Annual Change in Labor Share
Chart	Data	5.13	Advanced Economies: Contributions to the Annual Change in the Labor Share by Skill Level
Chart	Data	5.14	Effects of Changes in Trade Prices on Labor Share, Output, and Labor Compensation
Chart	Data	5.15	Advanced Economies' Labor Income Share, Labor Compensation, and Employment: Robustness to Alternative Skill Classification

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