Contents
Chapter 3. Is Inflation Back?
Commodity Prices and Inflation |
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Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |
Surging Commodity Prices: Origins and Prospects Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation Monetary Policy Responses to Commodity Price Shocks Summary and Conclusions Appendix 3.1. Recent Commodity Market Developments Appendix 3.2. Accounting for Food Price Increases, 2006–08 Appendix 3.3. Estimating Inflationary Effects of Commodity Price Shocks References |
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Chapter 4. Financial Stress
and Economic Downturns |
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Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |
Identifying Episodes of Financial Stress Financial Stress, Economic Slowdown, and Recession Has Financial Innovation Affected the Interplay between Financial Stress and Economic Cycles The Current Financial Crisis in Historical Context Conclusions Appendix 4.1. Data and Methodology References |
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Chapter 5. Fiscal
Policy as a Countercyclical Tool |
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Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |
Understanding the Fiscal Policy Debate How Has Discretionary Fiscal Policy Typically Responded? Are Fiscal Policy Reactions Different in Emerging and Advanced Economies? The Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy A Simulation-Based Perspective on Fiscal Stimulus Conclusions and Policy Considerations Appendix 5.1. Data and Empirical Methods References |
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Chapter 6. Divergence
of Current Account Balances across Emerging Economies |
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Full Text | Summary | Video | Boxes | Figures | |
Recent Current Account Patterns in Emerging Economies What Factors Have Contributed to Recent Current Account Patterns Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances Conclusions and Policy Implications Appendix 6.1. Variable Definitions and Data Source Appendix 6.2. Econometric Approach References |
Boxes |
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Chart Chart Chart |
Data Data Data |
3.1 | Does Financial Investment Affect Commodity Price Behavior? |
Chart | Data | 3.2 | Fiscal Responses to Recent Commodity Price Increases: An Assessment |
Chart | Data | 3.3 | Monetary Policy Regimes and Commodity Prices |
4.1 | Policies to Resolve Financial System Stress and Restore Sound Financial Intermediation | ||
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
5.1 | Differences in the Extent of Automatic Stabilizers and Their Relationship with Discretionary Fiscal Policy |
5.2 | Why Is It So Hard to Determine the Effects of Fiscal Stimulus? | ||
Chart | Data | 5.3 | Have U.S. Tax Cuts Been "TTT"? |
Chart Chart |
Data Data |
6.1 | Current Account Determinants for Oil-Exporting Countries |
Chart Chart Chart |
Data Data Data |
6.2 | Sovereign Wealth Funds: Implications for Global Financial Markets |
Chart | Data | 6.3 | Historical Perspective on Growth and the Current Account |
Tables |
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3.1 | Contributions of Common Factors to Commodity Price Fluctuations | ||
3.2 | Selected Indicators of Spillovers across Major Food Commodity Prices | ||
3.3 | Global Oil Demand and Production by Region | ||
3.4 | Elasticity Estimates Used for Price Calculations | ||
4.1 | Descriptive Statistics on Financial Stress Episodes | ||
4.2 | Descriptive Statistics on Financial Stress, Slowdowns, and Recessions | ||
4.3 | Cross-Section Regressions | ||
4.4 | Six Major Periods of Financial Stress and Economic Contractions | ||
4.5 | Data | ||
4.6 | Average Yearly Share of Total Bank Assets of Banks in Sample | ||
5.1 | Macroeconomic Indicators around Downturns, with and without a Fiscal Impulse: All Economies | ||
5.2 | Real GDP Growth and Fiscal Impulse under Various Initial Conditions: All Economies | ||
5.3 | Real GDP Growth and Fiscal Impulse by Composition: All Economies | ||
5.4 | Responses of Real GDP to Discretionary Fiscal Policy Changes | ||
5.5 | List of Countries and Downturn Episodes | ||
5.6 | Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Growth: Regression Results with Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel Estimator Using Elasticity-Based Fiscal Impulse Measure | ||
5.7 | Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Growth: Regression Results with Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel Estimator Using Regression-Based Fiscal Impulse Measure | ||
6.1 | Determinants of the Current Account Balance | ||
6.2 | Duration Regressions of Persistent and Large Current Account Deficits | ||
6.3 | Explaining Differentiated Effects in Emerging Europe | ||
6.4 | List of Persistently Large Current Account Imbalance Episodes | ||
6.5 | Duration Analysis and Domestic Financial Sector Liberalization | ||
6.6 | Duration Analysis and Risk of Abrupt and Non-Abrupt Endings | ||
Figures
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Chart | Data | 3.1 | Commodity Prices in Historical Context |
Chart | Data | 3.2 | Marginal Change in Energy Intensity, Commodity Inventories, and OPEC Spare Capacity ....... |
Chart | Data | 3.3 | Grain and Oil Demand, Production, and Inventories in Comparison |
Chart | Data | 3.4 | Oil Supply Developments |
Chart | Data | 3.5 | Price Trends of Major Foods |
Chart | Data | 3.6 | Duration and Amplitude of Food and Crude Oil Price Cycles |
Chart | Data | 3.7 | Inflation around the World |
Chart | Data | 3.8 | Changes in International and Domestic Commodity Prices and Headline Inflation |
Chart | Data | 3.9 | The Relative Importance of Food and Energy |
Chart | Data | 3.10 | Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies |
Chart | Data | 3.11 | Commodity Price Pass-Through |
Chart | Data | 3.12 | Changes in Expected Inflation in Response to Changes in Actual Inflation |
Chart | Data | 3.13 | Activity, Interest Rates, and Inflation |
Chart | Data | 3.14 | Stylized Advanced Economy with Adverse and Favorable Supply Shocks |
Chart | Data | 3.15 | Stylized More-Vulnerable Emerging Market Economy with Adverse and Favorable Supply Shocks |
Chart | Data | 3.16 | Potential Costs of Delaying Interest Rate Hikes |
Chart | Data | 3.17 | Commodity and Petroleum Prices |
Chart | Data | 3.18 | World Oil Market Balances and Oil Futures Price |
Chart | Data | 3.19 | Developments in Food and Metal Markets |
Chart | Data | 4.1 | Financial Stress and Output Loss |
Chart | Data | 4.2 | Financial Stress Index |
Chart | Data | 4.3 | Financial Stress and Shocks |
Chart | Data | 4.4 | Contribution of Banking, Securities, and Foreign Exchange to Current Financial Stress Episode |
Chart | Data | 4.5 | Lag between Financial Stress and Downturns |
Chart | Data | 4.6 | Selected Macrovariables around Economic Downturns with and without Financial Stress |
Chart | Data | 4.7 | Banking-Related Financial Stress, Slowdowns, and Recessions |
Chart | Data | 4.8 | Cost of Capital and Bank Asset Growth around Banking Financial Stress Episodes |
Chart | Data | 4.9 | Selected Macrovariables around Financial Stress Episodes |
Chart | Data | 4.10 | Initial Conditions of Financial Stress Episodes |
Chart | Data | 4.11 | Financial Stress and Economic Downturns: Controlling for Four Main Shocks |
Chart | Data | 4.12 | The Procyclicality of Leverage in Investment and Commercial Banks |
Chart | Data | 4.13 | Procyclical Leverage and Arm's-Length Financial Systems |
Chart | Data | 4.14 | Arm's-Length Financial Systems, GDP Growth, and Bank Leverage |
Chart | Data | 4.15 | The Current Financial Stress Episode in the United States and Euro Area in Historical Context |
Chart | Data | 5.1 | How Often and Quickly Has Fiscal Stimulus Been Used in G7 Economies? |
Chart | Data | 5.2 | How Strong Was the Fiscal Policy Response in G7 Economies? |
Chart | Data | 5.3 | How Have Fiscal Policy Responses Varied across Advanced Economies? |
Chart | Data | 5.4 | Is There a Bias toward Easing during Downturns in G7 Economies? |
Chart | Data | 5.5 | Did G7 Economies Respond to Erroneously Perceived Downturns? |
Chart | Data | 5.6 | Composition of Fiscal Stimulus during Downturns for Advanced and Emerging Economies |
Chart | Data | 5.7 | Fiscal Policy Responses in Downturns and Upturns |
Chart | Data | 5.8 | Macroeconomic Indicators after Downturns, with and without a Fiscal Stimulus |
Chart | Data | 5.9 | Changes in Real GDP Growth and Fiscal Policies under Various Initial Conditions |
Chart | Data | 5.10 | Effect of Fiscal Expansion in a Large Economy |
Chart | Data | 5.11 | Fiscal Expansion in a Large Economy Compared with a Small Open Economy with Monetary Accommodation |
Chart | Data | 5.12 | Effect of Fiscal Expansion in a Small Economy with Market-Risk-Premium Reaction |
Chart | Data | 6.1 | Patterns of Divergence in Current Account Balance |
Chart | Data | 6.2 | External Balances by Component |
Chart | Data | 6.3 | Current Account Balance, Saving, and Investment |
Chart | Data | 6.4 | Saving and Investment by Components |
Chart | Data | 6.5 | Growth Takeoffs |
Chart | Data | 6.6 | Current Account Reversals around Crises |
Chart | Data | 6.7 | Current Account Balance and Real GDP per Capita Growth |
Chart | Data | 6.8 | Patterns of Financial Development |
Chart | Data | 6.9 | Explaining the Current Account Balances of Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe |
Chart | Data | 6.10 | Explaining Current Account Balances: Results by Subregion |
Chart | Data | 6.11 | Deviation from Predicted Real Effective Exchange Rates |
Chart | Data | 6.12 | Residual Current Account Balance, Deviation of Real Effective Exchange Rate from Predicted Level and Stock of Reserves |
Chart | Data | 6.13 | Persistently Large Current Account Deficit and Surplus Episodes, 1960-2007 |
Chart | Data | 6.14 | Duration of Large, Persistent Current Account Deficits, 1960-2007 |
Chart | Data | 6.15 | Survival Functions of Deficit Episodes |
Chart | Data | 6.16 | Predicted Duration and Actual Length of Ongoing Deficit Episodes |
Chart | Data | 6.17 | Corporate Profitability and Productivity Growth |