In limba romana
Russian
IMF Executive Board Approves US$574 ECF/EFF
Arrangements for Moldova
Press Release No. 10/21
January 29, 2010The Executive Board of the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) today approved three-year arrangements for the Republic of Moldova
under the Extended Credit Facility and the Extended Fund Facility.1
With each facility providing an equal amount, the combined financial assistance
will be equivalent to SDR 369.6 million (about US$574.4 million) to support the
country’s economic program aimed at restoring fiscal and external
sustainability, preserving financial stability, reducing poverty, and raising
growth.
The approval makes an amount equivalent to SDR 60 million (about US$93.2
million) immediately available, with the remainder available in installments
subject to semiannual reviews.
The new arrangements follow a three-year program supported by a Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board in
May 2006 and expired in May 2009 (see
Press Release No. 06/91).
Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy Managing
Director and Acting Chairman, said:
“The global economic crisis led to a rapid deterioration in the Moldovan
economy in 2009. Falling demand in trading partners caused a severe downturn in
exports and workers’ remittances; FDI and other capital inflows fell
dramatically as well. As a result, domestic demand collapsed, causing a sharp
GDP contraction and deflationary pressures. Fiscal pressures were exacerbated by
pre-election spending hikes.
“The authorities’ program for 2010–12 aims to restore fiscal and external
sustainability and boost growth. Fiscal policy targets a gradual return to a
sustainable position by 2012, or earlier if possible. Monetary policy will focus
on maintaining price stability. Structural reforms will support the recovery,
including by increasing the flexibility of the highly regulated economy. The
program will also increase spending for essential social services and poverty
reduction.
“Fiscal policy in 2010 seeks to balance a much-needed adjustment with large
public investment and social spending needs. To reduce the deficit, the
authorities have rescheduled unaffordable wage increases and rationalized
spending on materials and subsidies. At the same time, the budget envisages a
rise in targeted social assistance spending to help protect vulnerable
households.
“Taking advantage of low inflation, monetary policy will be supportive of the
nascent economic recovery. To ensure that the exchange rate is in line with
fundamentals, intervention in the foreign exchange market will be limited to
smoothing short-run fluctuations. The central bank is closely monitoring banks’
financial soundness and stands ready to take preemptive action if needed.
“Structural reforms are designed to unlock the economy’s growth potential and
support the fiscal program. A wide-ranging program of liberalization and
deregulation is aimed at stimulating competition and fostering private
sector-led growth. To keep the social insurance system financially sustainable,
early retirement privileges of the civil servants will be gradually phased out,
and sick leave compensation will be revamped. The authorities will also address
the large quasi-fiscal arrears in the heating sector.”
ANNEX
Recent Economic Developments
The global economic crisis hit Moldova hard, leading to a sharp weakening of
the economy. In the first half of 2009, falling demand in trading partners led
to a severe downturn in exports and remittances. While GDP dropped by nearly 8
percent over the same period, domestic demand declined even faster, and the
current account deficit contracted to about 11 percent of period GDP. At the
same time, the balance of payments moved from a surplus to a large deficit as
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and other capital inflows fell dramatically.
Deflation pressures persisted for most of 2009.
Program Summary
The program aims to restore fiscal and external sustainability, preserve
financial stability, and raise growth. To facilitate the adjustment, the program
provides for adequate budget financing.
Specifically, program objectives include:
(i) reversing the structural fiscal deterioration that occurred in 2008–2009
while safeguarding funds for public investment and priority social spending;
(ii) keeping inflation under control while rebuilding foreign reserves to
cushion the economy from external shocks;
(iii) ensuring financial stability by enabling early detection of problems
and strengthening the framework for bank rehabilitation and resolution; and
(iv) raising the economy’s potential through structural reforms.
The program will also help mobilize resources for successful
implementation of the poverty reduction agenda. To promote poverty
reduction, the program sets a floor on priority social spending. Moreover,
social assistance spending will be increased by 36 percent in 2010 relative to
2009 to support vulnerable households.
Republic of Moldova: Selected Economic Indicators, 2007-2010*
|
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
|
|
Est. |
Proj. |
|
I. Real sector
indicators |
(Percent change, unless otherwise indicated) |
Gross domestic product |
|
|
|
|
Real growth rate |
3.0 |
7.8 |
-9.0 |
1.5 |
Demand |
7.8 |
5.7 |
-18.9 |
2.3 |
Consumption |
3.8 |
5.7 |
-7.0 |
-1.7 |
Gross fixed capital
formation |
25.5 |
2.2 |
-38.4 |
6.1 |
Nominal GDP (billions of
Moldovan lei) |
53.4 |
62.9 |
59.5 |
64.3 |
Consumer price index
(end of period) |
13.1 |
7.4 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
Average monthly wage
(Moldovan lei) |
2,063 |
2,529 |
2,750 |
... |
Saving-investment
balance |
(Percent of GDP) |
Foreign saving |
16.5 |
17.3 |
8.9 |
10.2 |
National saving |
17.6 |
16.7 |
13.1 |
14.5 |
Gross investment |
34.1 |
34.0 |
22.0 |
24.7 |
II. Fiscal indicators
(general government) |
|
Primary balance (cash) |
1.0 |
0.2 |
-7.6 |
-5.7 |
Overall balance (cash) |
-0.2 |
-1.0 |
-9.0 |
-7.0 |
Stock of general
government debt |
26.8 |
21.3 |
30.9 |
36.9 |
III. Financial
indicators |
(End of period percent change, unless otherwise
indicated) |
Broad money (M3) |
39.8 |
15.9 |
-0.2 |
9.3 |
Velocity (GDP/end-period
M3; ratio) |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Reserve money |
46.4 |
22.0 |
-6.3 |
7.4 |
Credit to the economy |
51.7 |
20.3 |
-7.1 |
10.7 |
IV. External sector
indicators |
(Millions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise
indicated) |
Current account balance |
-726 |
-1,049 |
-478 |
-518 |
Current account balance
(percent of GDP) |
-16.5 |
-17.3 |
-8.9 |
-10.2 |
Remittances and
compensation of employees (net) |
1,419 |
1,796 |
1,135 |
1,237 |
Gross official reserves |
1,334 |
1,672 |
1,456 |
1,695 |
Gross official reserves
(months of imports) |
2.8 |
5.5 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
Real effective exchange
rate, end-year, change (percent) |
16.0 |
23.3 |
-19.7 |
… |
External debt (percent
of GDP) |
64.2 |
55.9 |
66.0 |
78.6 |
Debt service (percent of
exports of goods and services) |
13.7 |
16.6 |
19.2 |
20.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sources:
Moldovan authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
* Data exclude Transnistria. |
1The
Extended Credit Facility (ECF) has replaced the Poverty Reduction and Growth
Facility (PRGF) as the Fund’s main tool for medium-term financial support to
low-income countries by providing a higher level of access to financing, more
concessional terms, enhanced flexibility in program design features, and more
focused streamlined conditionality. Financing under the ECF carries a zero
interest rate, with a grace period of 5.5 years, and a final maturity of 10
years. The Fund reviews the level of interest rates for all concessional
facilities every two years. The Extended Fund Facility (EFF) carries an annual
interest rate equal to the SDR basic rate of charge, and is repayable over 10
years with a 4.5-year grace period on principal payments.
|